[St00k]

I can't say I care a lot about resale value. I tend to keep cars for quite a while. I guess for me it's a sign of a quality product and strong demand.

Generally EVs have terrible resale value. I think it's because the market is slim, folks are worried about buying one used (worried the battery won't hold a charge as long) and the technology is improving so much that even a 4 year old model is seriously outdated. Just look at the early Nissan Leafs as an example.

After just 3 years, KBB says the LEAF only has 34.3% of its value. YIKES!

Look at a Tesla Model X though and its 52.7%

I expect that has to do with the strong tech inside, plus the overall demand for anything Tesla.

As for Porsche, I saw a recent study that the 911 retains over 60 of its value even at 5 yrs old.

So... will the Taycan be more like the 911 or like other EVs?

 

[GreaseMonkey]

It would seem to reason that the Panamera is a good starting point for evaluating Taycan depreciation given similar pricing like-for-like (eg, Turbo vs Turbo).

2017 Panamera Turbos (so ~2.5 years old) with typical mileage (8-12k / year), appear to be trading in the $90k range. Let's assume an approximate MSRP of $170k (a very rough estimate).

In my opinion, the primary challenge facing the Panamera Turbo is that it lacks the straight-line performance of its direct competitors - the M5 and E63s (in my humble perspective); I appreciate the handling and build quality differentiation points, however.

Let's compare the Taycan's market position/perception with the Panamera Turbo:

Pros

• straight-line performance is pretty much unequaled outside of exotics and Tesla Model S P100D/Raven; Porsche handling (looking at you Tesla)
• Next generation electric platform (lower maintenance costs; perception of positive environmental impact; fuel $$$ savings)
• Porsche build quality, engineering & interior refinement (including next gen interior tech - dash; displays, etc.)
• Beauty is in the eye of the beholder but hard to argue that it is not a more attractive car than anything else in its class
• What product is on the horizon in next 3 years that will compete from a performance / quality / utility perspective?? None that I am aware of (with exception of Tesla roadster purely from performance perspective) and we have a fairly good line of sight to product portfolio for each manufacturer over this time; 5-years is harder to foresee but the difficulty of extracting incremental performance at these levels is truly exponential

*Porsche is not Tesla and i dont foresee MSRP compression on the Taycan as a product near or medium term strategy.

Cons

• First Gen / early mover penalty on EV (guaranteed evolution of EV technology)
• Unknown battery useful life (although Tesla data and 8-yr Porsche warranty should provide reasonable assurance)
• Range anxiety (I believe this is a public perception red herring and will only ebb as EV infrastructure continues its rapid deployment over next few years)
• Others?

When I put all of that in context, I find it impossible to perceive that the Taycan Turbo will not command a significant market premium to the Panamera Turbo (and M5/E63s of equal or even reasonably newer age). Also, look at the 911 Turbo S - 2014 models (5-6 years old) still command $110k

I estimate 3-yr old Taycan Turbo will have a market value in the $120k range; 5-yr old...$100k

 

[JWoody]

My dealer said next week they will get details on assumed Taycan depreciation for PCP finance purposes

 

[TEV31]

My dealer said next week they will get details on assumed Taycan depreciation for PCP finance purposes

@JWoody were you able to find out?

Its known that Porsche's generally hold their value very well and I expect that to continue with the Taycan. The 56.6 percent of its original value in three years stat on Tesla's could be where Taycan's range around on the low end. Maybe the the higher volume selling 4S?

I say that primarily because of build quality which Porsche is known for that the Taycan has.

SlashGear put it well when they said "Throughout it all there’s a build quality that reminds you why the Porsche user-experience is so widely praised. It’s easy to criticize Tesla for its aging Model S cabin and, in places, middling materials, but the reality is that there are plenty of expensive cars which surprise when you start touching the secondary controls or less-obvious trim. From my stroking, poking, and prodding, the Taycan seems to avoid that pratfall."

The only downside is that we have an interior that doesn't exactly feel up to par with the rest of the car. And that brings me to my other point. First model year Taycan's might see the worst depreciation because of this as Porsche works to address it (I'm sure they will).

So when looking at long-term and short-term depreciation, we should factor in year models.

 

[JWoody]

@JWoody were you able to find out?

Its known that Porsche's generally hold their value very well and I expect that to continue with the Taycan. The 56.6 percent of its original value in three years stat on Tesla's could be where Taycan's range around on the low end. Maybe the the higher volume selling 4S?

I say that primarily because of build quality which Porsche is known for that the Taycan has.

SlashGear put it well when they said "Throughout it all there’s a build quality that reminds you why the Porsche user-experience is so widely praised. It’s easy to criticize Tesla for its aging Model S cabin and, in places, middling materials, but the reality is that there are plenty of expensive cars which surprise when you start touching the secondary controls or less-obvious trim. From my stroking, poking, and prodding, the Taycan seems to avoid that pratfall."

The only downside is that we have an interior that doesn't exactly feel up to par with the rest of the car. And that brings me to my other point. First model year Taycan's might see the worst depreciation because of this as Porsche works to address it (I'm sure they will).

So when looking at long-term and short-term depreciation, we should factor in year models.

Yes - my dealer said expect around 50% depreciation after 3 years

 

[RunPorsche]

Yep,
That would be my guess (50%). If the technolgy continues to evolve it could be more. (Think iPhone). I imagine Porsche will be very thoughtful (and conservative) however the old rule of thumb is if an asset depreciates rent it (lease) If it appreciates (buy it). I have a number of cars I have purchased but this one is a lease as I think the Improvement curve is substaintial over the next 3-4 years

 

[Udo]

The old adage about the wisdom to lease if it depreciates makes little sense in my view, particularly with cars (unless, perhaps, you can write it off as a business expense. Even then you have to check current tax law and compare to write off available as a purchase.)

If leasing, the depreciation curve is steepest in the first three years of a typical lease. So at the end of a lease term you lease about and always subject yourself to the most expensive period of car ownership at every new lease.

I bought my current car new 13 years ago. It's solid, reliable, and had been paid off for many years. There's something to be said about picking a reliable car and driving it for decades.

With an ice you can take care of a vehicle and it will run 250 to 500 k if you take care of it and pick correct vehicle. The problem with battery tech is the warranty is good for 80k. If you have to replace the battery at 80 k or 100k it is probably makes zero economic sense.

Were that Porsche warrantied battery replacement to 500k that would mean something. Elon and Tesla are wise to be talking about million mile batteries.

I've driven aTaycan turbo s and find it a marvelous vehicle. I would love to own a 4s.

Any electrical vehicle will also loose range as the battery is recharged--another factor to consider in a car that may be 95% depreciated at 100k miles. With an ice Porsche I think you are likely to do better.

Some day electrical tech will be superior in all respects. We are just not there yet

 

[RunPorsche]

Hmm
13 year old Technolgy??
So good luck finding a used one where someone else has already eaten all the depreciation as is typically the old adage about buying the used cars

I have a six high performance vehicles including four Porsches and this is the only one I’ve leased. I think in three years I’ll be happy that that was the right decision. (as I purchase a 2024 model)

 

[Udo]

Hmm
13 year old Technolgy??
So good luck finding a used one where someone else has already eaten all the depreciation as is typically the old adage about buying the used cars

I have a six high performance vehicles including four Porsches and this is the only one I’ve leased. I think in three years I’ll be happy that that was the right decision. (as I purchase a 2024 model)

Given this is the first iteration Taycan and you plan to buy in three years, I could see how your plan may make good sense.

I was trying to point out it normally never makes sense to lease, particularly back to back vehicles.

My thirteen year old vehicle is ice, considered essentially state of art for it's vehicle type. They make them the same way except for transmission, and I am not sure that's an improvement. Technology curve is relatively flat.

Do you think you could tolerate an air cooled 911? I had a good line on one many years ago--had I bought that then!

It sounds like you subscribe to the buy mode with this exception.

I am not sure our thinking is that far apart.

 

[RunPorsche]

I agree, I actually am working on having an air cooled 964 restored. Amazing vehicle. I must admit I love elegant technology and fast cars which is a very problematic combination. This is what today’s manufacurtures have figured out and that’s how they get people on the “lease treadmill”. This is very profitable for them and costly for the consumer

 

[Axiom]

50% is also what many other Taycan owners I spoke to are getting from dealers. Some are saying within the 40% range after 36 months. What other current residual value numbers for leases has everyone heard?

I didn't expect Taycan depreciation to be this bad even after 3 years! Closer the 911 was more like it (60% after 5 years)

We should look into the depreciation curve and draw our own estimations here of how it could play out. Then compare that to other vehicles on the market. Tesla's haven't been that bad and its always been my expectation that the Taycan and future Porsche EV's would perform better.

This 2018 study is one of many examples